It is well established as a matter of international law and domestic refugee law that the test for determining whether a person is a refugee is forward looking. The principle that the decision maker may look to the past as a guide to what is likely to occur in the future but the past is not determinative was consistently accepted and applied.

Where an applicant’s core claim is accepted the Tribunal is bound to give consideration to and ought to go on to ask whether the applicant has a well founded fear of persecution if returned to his country of origin, in the light of accepted past experiences and to objective country information. The Tribunal must apply a forward looking test when assessing whether the applicant had a well founded fear of persecution.